How Do Business and Financial Cycles Interact?


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Date Published 2011
Version IMF Working Paper 11/88
Primary Author Stijn Claessens, M. Ayhan Kose and Marco E. Terrones
Other Authors
Theme Real Estate Cycles and Bubbles


This paper analyzes the interactions between business and financial cycles using an extensive database of over 200 business and 700 financial cycles in 44 countries for the period 1960:1- 2007:4. Our results suggest that there are strong linkages between different phases of business and financial cycles. In particular, recessions associated with financial disruption episodes, notably house price busts, tend to be longer and deeper than other recessions. Conversely, recoveries associated with rapid growth in credit and house prices tend to be stronger. These findings emphasize the importance of developments in credit and housing markets for the real economy.

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